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The quantitative literature comes fairly close to general agreement on the following four propositions from economics, political sociology and international relations: First, democracies rarely fight each other. This does not say that democracies fight fewer wars than other regimes. It is even compatible with the view that the risk of war between autocracies and democracies is even higher than the risk of war between autocracies. Second, prosperity or high per capita incomes promote democracy. Third, export orientation in poor countries and open markets in rich countries, i.e., trade between rich and poor countries promotes growth and prosperity where it is needed most, in poor countries. Fourth, trade reduces the risk of war between nations.

Free trade plays a pivotal role in the prevention of war because it exerts direct and indirect pacifying effects. In addition to the direct effect, there is an indirect effect of free trade on the avoidance of military conflict mediated by growth, prosperity and democracy. Prosperity comes close to being a prerequisite of democracy. The risk of military conflict and war is extremely small among democracies. This package of effects may be labeled the capitalist peace. If globalization is understood as the spread of capitalism by free trade, foreign investment and outsourcing, then globalization promises to promote prosperity and peace at the same time. Of course, the diffusion of capitalism and peace by globalization takes time and does not solve all urgent problems at once. That is why I have always advocated robust military capabilities in order to deter and, if necessary, to fight the enemies of the free world. But the capitalist peace is likely to prevent many security problems from even arising.

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Erich Weede

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