This book presents what is meant to be a plausible and accessible descriptive theory and empirical approach to the analysis of such financial market conditions. It advances such a framework through application of standard econometric methods to its central idea, which is that financial bubbles reflect urgent short side rationed demand. From this basic idea, an elasticity of variance concept is developed. The notion that easy credit provides fuel for bubbles is supported. It is further shown that a behavioral risk premium can probably be measured and related to the standard equity risk premium models in a way that is consistent with conventional theory.
The concept of absolute quasi-equilibrium instead describes the world as it is - a place where, in the absence of perfect information, the probability of attaining the absolute in the limit is virtually nil.
Harold Vogel is the president of Vogel Capital Management. Previously, he was a managing director at SG Cowen Securities in New York and for 17 years was first vice president and senior entertainment industry analyst at Merrill Lynch. He has been recognized by Institutional Investor magazine as a top analyst in his field for over 20 years and received a first-place ranking for 10 years. In 1998, The Wall Street Journa lnamed him No. 1 casino and No. 3 entertainment analyst in its all-star ranking.
The author of two texts and an adjunct professor at Columbia University, he holds an M.B.A. from Columbia, an M.A. in economics from New York University, and is a chartered financial analyst.