Expert Political Judgment

How Good Is It? How Can We Know?

Автор(и) : Philip E. Tetlock

Издател : Princeton University Press

Място на издаване : New Jersey, USA

Година на издаване : 2005

ISBN : 978-1-400-83031-2

Брой страници : 321

Език : английски


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Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
By Philip E. Tetlock

Winner of the 2006 Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Improving World Order
Winner of the 2006 Woodrow Wilson Foundation Award, American Political Science Association
Winner of the 2006 Robert E. Lane Award, Political Psychology Section, American Political Science Association

Philip Tetlock, a University of California, Berkeley, professor of business administration and political science, earned the prize (2008) for ideas he set forth in his 2005 book, “Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?"
A great many political forecasts turn out to be inaccurate, which is troubling since government officials routinely rely on them to make decisions, Tetlock says.
In a 20-year study of 27,000 predictions by 284 political experts, Tetlock found those who take a big-picture approach are more often correct than those who operate from a single perspective. However, all political “experts” who do forecasts need to receive more training, do more research and be held publicly accountable for their advice, he says.
Award judges called the book “a landmark study that changes our understanding of the way experts perform when they make judgments about world politics.”
The work was selected from among 50 entries from seven countries.

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